Russia’s trade surplus decreased by a factor of 2.2 in January and February 2009 compared to the same period last year, to $15.2 billion, the Economy Ministry reported. In January and February 2008, it stood at $33.4 billion.

The country’s foreign trade turnover reached $62.8 billion in the first two months of 2009, a drop of 41.3 percent year-on-year. Trade with the CIS countries declined by 45.5 percent, while trade with other countries was down 40.6 percent.

Exports decreased 1.8-fold to $39 billion. Trade with countries outside the CIS accounted for 86 percent of total exports. The Economy Ministry attributed the decline to falling prices for Russia’s major exports, including for oil. In February, Urals oil prices averaged $42.4 a barrel, 2.2 times less than in February 2008 and down 0.9 percent from January 2009.

Imports shrank 35.3 percent in January and February 2009, to $23.8 billion. Trade with the CIS countries accounted for 12.7 percent of total imports, down from 14 percent in the corresponding period of last year, and trade with other countries made up 87.3 percent, up from 86 percent in the first two months of last year.

According to preliminary estimates by the State Statistics Service, imports from countries outside the CIS went down in February, including a 47.5 percent decline in the import of mechanical engineering products, a 21.8 percent fall in food products, and a 31.3 percent decrease for chemical products.

In March, the ruble will strengthen by an estimated 3.8-4 percent against the U.S. dollar in real terms, and rise by 1.7-2 percent against the euro, the Economy Ministry reported. In the first quarter of 2009, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar by between 15.2 and 15.5 percent, and depreciate by 11.4-11.6 percent against the European currency.

In February, the ruble depreciated against the dollar by 10.8 percent in real terms, while easing 6.1 percent against the euro. In January and February, the ruble lost 18.8 percent of its value against the dollar, and fell 13.1 percent versus the euro.

According to Sergei Ignatyev, deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Russia’s forex market has stabilized, and the Central Bank’s interference is no longer necessary. “The ruble’s exchange rate stabilized back in early February, and we have been carrying out almost no interventions for more than a month already. The market is currently balanced, and the ruble has even been strengthening over the past few days,” he said, noting that the Central Bank was having no trouble complying with its obligation to keep the ruble within RUB 41 against the bi-currency basket.